Working paper and replication code: how much of the FY2026 U.S. federal deficit traces to the 2025 reconciliation act (P.L. 119-21). Sourced from Treasury, CBO, JCT and BEA data.
{
"inputs": {
"deficit_fy26": {
"value": 1992.473,
"source": "MTS",
"note": "Table 3 'Surplus or Deficit', FYTD"
},
"deficit_fy25": {
"value": 1775.369,
"source": "MTS",
"note": "Table 3 prior-period FYTD"
},
"receipts_fy26": {
"value": 5403.327,
"source": "MTS",
"note": "Table 3 Total Receipts"
},
"receipts_fy25": {
"value": 5234.616,
"source": "MTS",
"note": "Table 3"
},
"outlays_fy26": {
"value": 7395.8,
"source": "MTS",
"note": "Table 3 Total Outlays"
},
"outlays_fy25": {
"value": 7009.986,
"source": "MTS",
"note": "Table 3"
},
"individual_fy26": {
"value": 2845.527,
"source": "MTS",
"note": "Table 3"
},
"individual_fy25": {
"value": 2656.044,
"source": "MTS",